[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 05N08W
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO 01N11W TO 03N25W TO 02N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS
BETWEEN 18W AND 21W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 33W AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MIGRATING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING
THROUGH FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...EXTENDING FROM
JUST SOUTH OF SARASOTA FLORIDA SOUTHWEST TO 23N94W. LAND BASED
RADAR IN FLORIDA IS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED LINE OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE AND
LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THIS CONVECTION IS ACTIVE ALONG FURTHER
WESTWARD INTO THE GULF ALONG THE FRONT AS TO AROUND 88W. THE 12Z
SOUNDING FROM TAMPA SHOWED GRADIENT FLOW AROUND 25 TO 30 KT N
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN INDICATION OF POSSIBLE
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR THE FRONTAL
CONVECTION. LATEST REPORTS FROM BUOY 42003 IN THE EAST CENTRAL
GULF SHOW PEAK WINDS TO 23 KT. BROKEN STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF IS STARTING TO CLEAR. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST GULF
TONIGHT...LEAVING MODERATE TO FRESH NW FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
GULF...AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH BUOY AND SHIP
OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL...ALTHOUGH ASCAT DATA SHOWS
WINDS TO 20 KT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH SEAS ESTIMATED
NEAR 8 FT. SPEED CONVERGENCE OF THESE TRADE WINDS IS SUPPORTING
LINES OF SHOWERS OVER THE SW  CARIBBEAN. FURTHER NORTH...LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD TROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI
MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION AND FOLLOWED BY
MODERATE TO FRESH NW FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OVER THE EASTERN N ATLC...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE NE ATLC TO 32N32W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS SITUATED
NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 32W19W TO 27N30W. THE UPPER
SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT IS LIFTING OUT...AND THE FRONT WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEST OF THE FRONT...A
QUASI-STATIONARY 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR
29N42W...MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS N OF 22N E OF 65W. S OF
THE HIGH PRES..A 1240Z ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH 0942Z WINDSAT PASS
SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW...GENERALLY W OF 55W
WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL. THE WINDSAT PASS ALSO SHOWS
CYCLONIC TURNING INDICATING A WEAK TROUGH ALONG 52W FROM 16N TO
21N...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM. FURTHER
WEST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. ASCAT DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG
SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT. THESE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH GALE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE N OF 29N E OF 72W BY FRI. BUOYS AND ASCAT DATA ALSO
SHOW STRONG NW FLOW FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 13
FT AT BUOY 41010 100 NM E OF  CAPE CANAVERAL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN





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