[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051130
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 6N8W 5N22W 2N39W 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N
BETWEEN 23W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE GULF ARE DOMINATED WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A COLD FRONT AT 05/0900 UTC ENTERS THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF TAMPA NW TO 28N85W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA NEAR NEW ORLEANS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF THE COLD FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH NEAR
TUXPAN MEXICO. SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF A LINE FROM THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS
ALONG 27N90W TO TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI LEAVING THE S GULF
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO REMAIN TRANQUIL AS THE UPPER LEVELS
OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY WESTERLY FLOW AND THE MID
LEVELS BY EASTERLY FLOW MAINLY S OF 16N E OF 80W. MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAIN ALOFT. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 17N68W TO 12N69W.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 16N75W ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TO NEAR 19N63W. THE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE BANKING
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 75
NM ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO PANAMA S OF 12N W OF 80W
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE ATLC TO 25W WITH
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC AT 05/0900 UTC NEAR 32N72W SW ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA BETWEEN VERO BEACH TO JUST S OF TAMPA INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
WITH A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 28N67W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 32N37W EXTENDING ALONG 27N45W TO 26N51W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO 26N60W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM
SE OF THE COLD FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC WITH A 1018 MB HIGH S OF THE ABOVE FRONT NEAR 23N50W.
DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE AIR ALOFT...THE ATLC IS UNDER
FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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