[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010516
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE MAR 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SOUTHERN IVORY COAST TO 6N16W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
ALONG 28W...INTO BRAZIL NEAR 5S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4S TO 3N
BETWEEN 25W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM
2S TO 5N TO THE EAST OF 25W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N
BETWEEN 35W AND 50W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST
OF 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...AND
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS...SUPPORTING THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO COLD
FRONT. THE PART OF THE FRONT THAT IS INLAND AND MOVING THROUGH
THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES IS MOVING COMPARATIVELY FASTER
ACROSS THE LAND THAN THE PART OF THE FRONT THAT IS IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE TROUGH THAT IS STEERING
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM THE MIDDLE PART
TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE GULF WATERS. THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGEST
PRECIPITATION IS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE...ALONG A LINE FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA IN 24 HOURS...TO BE PASSING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND DISSIPATING TOWARD THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS...AND TO BE OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO COMPLETELY IN 72 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT GOES
FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 12N70W.
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT EVERYWHERE IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 78W/79W...FROM THE
WATERS JUST OFF CUBA...PASSING JUST TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA...
TOWARD EASTERN PANAMA. THE 30N64W-TO-26N88W ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH STEADILY
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CONTINUE AS MODERATE TO
FRESH THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES
THROUGH 32N47W TO 23N50W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. THE SOUTHERN END
OF A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N48W TO 31N50W. A SECOND AND
SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 25N39W TO
21N40W. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N39W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 28N38W AND 24N40W.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT CURVES AWAY FROM THE 1014 MB LOW CENTER TO
29N36W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N36W TO 23N38W
14N42W. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 14N42W
TO 7N50W...CURVING THROUGH NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA...THE NORTHERN
PART OF SURINAME...AND CENTRAL GUYANA...INTO EASTERN VENEZUELA.
THE SHEAR AXIS HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWARD WITH TIME SINCE
YESTERDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N38W 29N36W
32N35W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS. A 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N64W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF
46W...EVEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ONE SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE 30N64W HIGH CENTER TO 27N76W...ACROSS FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N88W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG
14N38W 23N32W BEYOND 32N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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