[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W
CONTINUING SW ALONG 4N20W 2N30W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S38W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 5N E OF 27W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF 2N BETWEEN
32W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE/TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SE CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W
EXTENDING SW TO 26N90W...WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO NEAR 23N94W. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES S INTO THE FAR SW BASIN TO NEAR
VERACRUZ MEXICO WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. DOPPLER RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTER WEAK SHOWERS WITHIN 25 NM AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT N OF 26N. MARINE OBSERVATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOW
NW WINDS 5-15 KT...BECOMING LIGHT W OF 91W WITH A FEW AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG. SSW WINDS 5-10 KT ARE ELSEWHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. AT THAT POINT...SSE SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME DOMINANT
ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. AT SURFACE...TRADE WINDS
10-20 KT ARE OBSERVED E OF 77W...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS FLOW DIVERGES W OF 77W. THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS ADVECTING A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS FROM THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLC BASIN INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 15N. THIS
AIRMASS IS GENERATING SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS IN THIS REGION E OF
75W...AND ALSO BANKING UP ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS BETWEEN 80W-85W S OF 16N.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE/TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN AND SE
CONUS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT NW OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WEST
ATLC LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTER WEAK CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...THE WESTERN ATLC IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 30N62W...SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS W OF 50W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND SUPPORTS A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION ALONG 32N38W EXTENDING SW TO 25N46W
BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH TO NEAR 19N52W. THIS SYSTEM IS
GENERATING SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION N OF 20N BETWEEN 39W-46W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES NEAR
38N17W. AS THE WESTERN ATLC HIGH MOVES EASTWARD AND THE EASTERN
ATLC HIGH STRENGTHENS...SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE
NARROW UPPER TROUGH WILL SPLIT AND THE SOUTHERN END OF IT WILL
INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR 25N39W IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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