[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 05N08W TO 03N21W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 30W THEN ALONG 01S TO 43W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR
02S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN
13W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS ALIGNED FROM THE SW GULF
NORTHEASTWARD TO BEYOND NE FLORIDA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE SE CONUS THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF AS A 998 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED NEAR THE TAIL END OF AN
IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE STRETCHING FROM KENTUCKY S-SW TO SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE CONVECTION REACHING TO NEAR 29N93W.
OTHERWISE...AREAS OF STRATUS AND LOWERED VISIBILITIES IN FOG ARE
OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 87W AND ALSO OVER THE NW GULF W
OF A LINE FROM 21N97W TO VERMILION BAY NEAR 29N92W. THE COLD
FRONT WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AND IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY...USHERING IN 10 TO 15 KT N-NE WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A VERY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. ELSEWHERE...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS INTO THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W AND IS PROVIDING MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...NE TO E TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25
KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE W ATLC. EXAMINING THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...THEY REMAIN
ELEVATED S OF 15N WHICH COINCIDES WITH ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE U.S. SEABOARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE LARGELY SUPPORTS A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF BERMUDA
NEAR 34N67W. MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS W OF 60W WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING BY LATE
FRIDAY N OF 27N W OF 70W AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID-ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. FARTHER
EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS BETWEEN 50W-60W DIPS SW
TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
ANALYZED FROM 32N39W SW TO 22N57W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EAST AND 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED
EAST OF PORTUGAL NEAR 39N13W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW
FROM THE HIGH ALONG 32N24W TO 24N42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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