[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 230200 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR FOR ISSUE TIME
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM AFRICA AT 06N11W TO THE EQUATOR
AT 26W...THEN CONTINUING SW TO S AMERICA AT 03S40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF
03N10W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND FROM 04S
TO 02N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE
UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY OVER THE GULF...BUT CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
COULD SPREAD SE OVER THE EXTREME NW GULF WATERS TONIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT THAT DIPPED INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY IS MOVING
BACK NORTHWARD AT THE MOMENT...AND EXTENDS E TO W ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS FROM THEN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E TEXAS. BROKEN TO
LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME AREAS REPORTING FOG...
ARE NOTED ALONG THE COASTS OF NE MEXICO AND E TEXAS. THE
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT HAS DIMINISHED TO SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS MOSTLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. HIGH PRES OVER THE N
CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NE ON WED WITH
A SURFACE RIDGE DISSECTING THE GULF FROM NW FLORIDA TO E TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING S OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS NOTED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND SHIFTING WESTWARD WITH TIME. EXCEPT FOR DENSE
CLOUDINESS SPREADING N OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN...THE UPPER LEVELS
SEEM VERY DRY AND SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED THE ATLANTIC NEAR 25N70W IS MAINTAINING 15-20 KT
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A BAND OF
LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS RACING W ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE ATLC W OF 45W AND IS
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR FOR THE MOST PART...EXCEPT BROKEN
CIRRIFORM CLOUDS ARE SPREADING SE OVER THE AREA N OF 29N BETWEEN
60W AND 45W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS NOTED OVER THE E ATLC WITH BAND
OF UPPER MOISTURE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE THE RIDGE...ROUGHLY
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 15N45W TO 26N26W. AT THE LOW LEVELS A
RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 25N W OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
32N50W TO 16N48W. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
MERGES WITH THE UPPER MOISTURE BAND PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. A
SECOND COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION...ALONG 32N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W...AND IS EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE SE ON WED AND THU BUT STALL BEFORE REACHING THE GREATER
ANTILLES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NELSON





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