[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221716
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM SIERRA LEONE AT 07N12W TO 04N20W TO
01N40W TO 01N45W TO N BRAZIL AT EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-2N BETWEEN 5W-7W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 12W-16W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 38W-44W...AND FROM
EQ-3N BETWEEN 48W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS A 1500 UTC...A 1011 MB LOW IS NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT 21N97W.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE BANKED ALONG THE ORIENTAL SIERRA MADRE N
OF 20N. A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND OVER S TEXAS FROM 30N94W TO
BEYOND 28N100W. LOW CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL FOG ARE ALSO OVER S
TEXAS AND S LOUISIANA. SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WITH 5-10 KT SE WINDS. TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF
THE GULF ARE NOW IN THE 70'S. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AT 25N56W
PRODUCING 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH 25-30 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS ARE
REPORTED OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 13N E OF 64W.
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS MOSTLY VOID OF SHOWERS DOTS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY S HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-18N
BETWEEN 70W-77W...AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT...OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TRADEWINDS TO MOVE PATCHES OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 15N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS MENTIONED...A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT 25N56WE PRODUCING
10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE W
ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 32N32W
27N34W 23N40W DISSIPATING TO 21N27W MOVING E. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT N OF 24N. IN THE TROPICS...RESIDUAL
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS ARE ALONG
THE COASTS OF GUYANA...SURINAME...FRENCH GUIANA...AND E
VENEZUELA FROM 3N-13N BETWEEN 52W-65W. FURTHER E...A 1030 MB
HIGH IS W OF PORTUGAL NEAR 38N12W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
SW TO 22N30W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-70W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF
40W. IN THE TROPICS A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED OFF
THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 9N28W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR...A NEW COLD FRONT TO PUSH DOWN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXTENDS FROM 32N47W TO 29N70W TO 29N80W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO
EXPECT THE EASTERN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO KEEP MOVING EASTWARD
WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR/MRF





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