[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM W AFRICA NEAR 6N9W 3N17W 2N24W THEN
ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 23W-36W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO
SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60
NM OF LINE FROM 5N10W TO 3N13W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 1W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE SE CONUS AND THE GULF ANCHORED BY A
1029 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC WITH A WEAK 1024 MB HIGH ALONG THE
COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM W BAY OF CAMPECHE TO LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION BAY GIVING
THE GULF NW FLOW ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
DOMINATES THE GULF BASIN LEAVING THE AREA WITH MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE
IS GIVING THE W GULF SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS BANKING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE NW GULF TO INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO N
OF TUXPAN TO OVER TEXAS AND W LOUISIANA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MON. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE FAR NW
WATERS LATE MON INTO TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
REMNANT SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W ACROSS
JAMAICA TO NEAR 17N84W. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC GIVING THE CARIBBEAN
SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS
SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS BANKING ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS OF W PANAMA TO SE NICARAGUA AND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST S OF 13N W OF 81W. SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE W ATLC WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE THROUGH SAT. TRADE WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATE SAT THROUGH MON AS THIS SURFACE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 45W INTO GULF OF MEXICO
ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR BERMUDA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE N/CENTRAL ATLC WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS BERMUDA SW TO E/CENTRAL CUBA.
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A
LINGERING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N29W
EXTENDING ALONG 26N39W TO 23N48W WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS
TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E
OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N45W NE TO BEYOND 32N19W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT
COVERING THE AREA N OF LINE FROM 19N63W TO 25N25W ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 300
NM NW OF THE SHEAR AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N18W GIVING THE AREA E OF THE
FRONT FAIR CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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