[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM W AFRICA NEAR 5N7W ALONG 3N17W 2N24W
THEN CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 16W AND FROM 4N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 19W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E CONUS AND THE GULF ANCHORED BY A
1029 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO TO OVER TEXAS COVERING THE W GULF WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF W
TO NW FLOW ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES
THE GULF BASIN LEAVING THE AREA WITH MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE IS GIVING THE W
GULF SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
NW GULF TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
REMNANT SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE
RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 125 NM OF LINE FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF HAITI...E CUBA...JAMAICA...AND NE NICARAGUA. THE
UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR CONDITIONS
AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE
TRADE WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE
THROUGH SAT. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE SAT THROUGH MON AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE STRENGTHENS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W INTO GULF OF MEXICO
ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH ABOUT 300 NM WNW OF BERMUDA. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 40W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N38W
EXTENDING TO 23N56W WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH TO 21N66W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
75 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N AND WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022
MB HIGH NEAR 27N25W GIVING THE AREA E OF THE FRONT FAIR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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