[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162327
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N13W
SOUTH-WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 1N30W EQ35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 1S46W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN
20W-31W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN
41W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ESE SFC 5-15 KT FLOW IS ACROSS THE BASIN...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 92W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NW
DIFFLUENT WINDS PREVAIL WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION. EXPECT...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE
WINDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W TO INCREASE TO 20 KT WITH NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SHEAR/REMNANT CLOUD LINE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW BASIN FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF NICARAGUA
NEAR 14N83W. CONVERGING NE AND TRADE WINDS ALONG THE AXIS ARE
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS. RESIDUAL BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 80W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE
ACROSS THE AREA...TURNING NE NEAR 77W. THIS FLOW IS BANKING SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AFFECTING THE
COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 14N W OF 78W. FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN THIS EVENING
WIT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES. AS THE SHEAR
LINE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...EXPECT NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 32N42W TO
HISPANIOLA ALONG 25N55W 20N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1031 MB HIGH 34N9W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS SUPPORTED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N25W.
LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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