[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0400 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA AT 5N9W THROUGH 2N20W CROSSING
THE EQUATOR NEAR 26N TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 3S42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 10W-14W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 17W-22W. ISOLATED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 3N TO THE BRAZILIAN COAST
BETWEEN 24W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1028 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM S OF DESTIN
FLORIDA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FIELD ACROSS
THE GULF...WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE
EXCEPTIONS OF THE NW GULF WHERE FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAS
REPORTED AT BUOY 42020 AT 04Z AND THE SW GULF WHERE THE WINDS
TURN CYCLONICALLY AROUND A TROUGH OF LOW PRES ALONG 93W S OF
24N. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING DENSE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH RAIN S OF 21N BETWEEN 93W-96W.
VILLAHERMOSA MEXICO REPORTED DRIZZLE AS THE TROUGH MOVED THROUGH
THE CITY AT 03Z. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE TODAY. ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE PART OF
THE BASIN. ALOFT...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHILE WEAK RIDGING LIES OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SHARP LINE OF
EXTREMELY DRY AIR PUSHING SWD ALONG THIS TROUGH AXIS WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE FOUND BEHIND THE TROUGH WHICH IS FURTHER SUPPORTING
THE FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD...ALLOWING THE UPPER
RIDGE TO MOVE IN BEHIND IT AND OVER HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE
WHICH WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER THROUGHOUT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS ALONG 21N76W 19N83W
15N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERALLY LIE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF 19N WHILE MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE FOUND ELSEWHERE
W OF THE BOUNDARY...WITHIN 90 NM E OF IT...AND OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. HOLGUIN CUBA REPORTED LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT
05Z. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS LIE N OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT WITH BUOY 42056 REPORTING 19 KT AND 7 FT SEAS AT 05Z. THE
FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA THAT EXTENDS INTO THE SRN GULF OF
MEXICO. EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS. MEANWHILE...MUCH OF THE BASIN IS UNDER A DRY
AND STABLE AIR MASS AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
COLOMBIA TO HISPANIOLA SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC LATER THIS MORNING...BUT DUE TO THE DRY
CONDITIONS IT IS ONLY SUPPORTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF
65W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO LIE NEAR WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 11N W OF
75W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N49W AND
STRETCHES SW WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 28N60W TO THE SE
BAHAMAS AND INTO WESTERN CUBA. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 32N70W THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM NEAR
29N71W WHILE THE INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS
IN THE VICINITY OF THIS SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
FOUND IN MUCH OF THE AREA N OF THE FRONT FROM 58W TO 67W AS WELL
AS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. THE 0144Z ASCAT PASS
AND NUMEROUS SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
GENERALLY WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WHILE THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FRONT WEAKENS. LIGHTER WINDS ARE FOUND FARTHER NW
OF THE FRONT WHERE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES STEMMING FROM A 1026 MB
HIGH NEAR 33N67W EXTENDS SOUTHWEST TOWARD CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA. SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR
28N34W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN PROVIDING MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC AND FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
SUPPORTED BY A WIDESPREAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN ANTICYCLONE
NEAR 23N36W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MAURITANIA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT LIES SOUTHWEST OF THIS TROUGH AXIS AND SOUTH OF THE
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE REGION OF THE ITCZ PRIMARILY W OF 25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
SCHAUER




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net