[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA AT 6N10W TO 2N20W TO 1N30W TO
BRAZIL AT EQ48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N
BETWEEN 5W-7W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-5N BETWEEN 13W-26W...AND FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 32W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO SOUTH MEXICO ALONG 27N80W 21N88W 21N97W
16N92W MOVING SE. COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN AND SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA S OF 28N. SIMILAR RAIN AND
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM NW OF THE FRONT. 15-20 KT N
WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER
THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW WINDS
PREVAIL WITH 70-110 KT UPPER LEVEL WINDS N OF 24N. CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS N OF 25N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF
25N. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO DRIFT TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S MEXICO ALONG
21N88W 21N97W 16N92W WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVING SE. 10-20 KT
TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A 1006 MB LOW
IS CENTERED INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N74W. PATCHES OF BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN
ESPECIALLY THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 74W...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
PANAMA TO BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED N OF COLOMBIA NEAR 14N71W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE TRADEWINDS TO
CONTINUE TO ADVECT SHOWERS W OVER THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N72W TO S FLORIDA AT
27N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
30N43W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. THE USUAL TRADEWINDS ARE S OF
20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A VERY BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE
ATLANTIC N OF 20N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 15N45W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR...THE FRONT TO DRIFT OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM
31N73W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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