[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101122
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W
SW ALONG 2N20W 1N30W EQ40W 3S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E
OF 25W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 34W
AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES THIS
MORNING...SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GULF FROM THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ALONG 29N81W 25N90W 18N93W. A 1007 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE
FRONT NEAR 29N85W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 25N E OF 82W. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING
INLAND AT ABOUT 20 KT. A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS IS EMBEDDED IN
THE FRONT S OF 25N NOTED ON NIGHT VISION SATELLITE IMAGERY.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE OBSERVED WEST OF THE
FRONT...GENERATING SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH CONVECTION AND A GOOD
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND IT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN E OF
73W...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THIS
AREA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE FAR NW BASIN AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC...ANCHORED BY
A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 29N43W. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ENTERING THE FAR WEST ATLC THIS MORNING...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT...PRESENTLY OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO...ENTERS THE WESTERN ATLC IN THE NEXT 6 TO 9
HRS WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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