[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA AT 6N10W TO 2N20W TO 2S30W TO
BRAZIL AT 3S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 6W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN
21W-24W...AND FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 27W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S LOUISIANA TO
TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 30N92W 27N95W 21N97W MOVING SE. COMPOSITE
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE W OF FRONT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.
15-20 KT SE WINDS ARE E OF FRONT AND W OF 90W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO N OF
22N AND W OF 83W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS S OF 22N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL WINDS PREVAIL WITH 70-110 KT UPPER LEVEL WINDS N
OF 24N. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS N OF 25N WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 25N. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W.
PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
DOTS THE CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W...AND THE
W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF COLOMBIA NEAR
14N73W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO
BE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO
EXPECT THE TRADEWINDS TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT SHOWERS W OVER THE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
31N56W TO E OF THE BAHAMAS 25N72W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1024 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N44W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. THE USUAL TRADEWINDS ARE S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS.  EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...A COLD FRONT TO BE
OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N73W TO S FLORIDA WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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