[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
7N12W SW TO NEAR 2S25W WESTWARD ALONG 3S30W TO 4S40W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5S-5N
BETWEEN 20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING.
MARINE OBS OVER THE BASIN INDICATE 5-15 KT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NW IS
BECOMING COMPACTED PRODUCING RETURN FLOW UP TO 25 KT NEAR THE
COAST OF TEXAS. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS IS IN RESPONSE OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW BASIN IN THE NEXT 3
TO 6 HRS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHILE GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND IT PRODUCING
SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE
ACROSS THE AREA AND BEGIN TO TURN CYCLONICALLY AROUND 77W. THIS
FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TRPCL
ATLC INTO THE BASIN...PROVIDING WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE EXTENDS POSITIVELY TILTED ACROSS
THE W AND N CENTRAL ATLC...SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA AS A WEAK STNRY FRONT NEAR 30N64W
EXTENDING SW TO ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W TO CUBA NEAR
21N77W. WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN 20 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
QUICKLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE SURFACE FEATURE...EXPECT THIS SYSTEM
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS. OTHERWISE...A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N45W. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS E OF 62W. HOWEVER...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR E ATLC...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS OUR DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N18W TO 27N21W. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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