[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071139
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1130 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W
WESTWARD ALONG 5N17W 5N25W 2N35W 2N45W 1S50W. ISOLATED PATCHES
OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS W OF 18W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG THE
EQUATOR LINE W OF 10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST TO TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 29N91W
26N94W 22N98W. SATELLITE AND DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30
NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. AS THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT S OF 25N GENERATING SEAS BETWEEN 8 TO
11 FT. AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE FRONT...A
BROADER AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE N OF 28N E OF 90W. SOUTH OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION
LIES A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT THAT CROSSES TO FLORIDA PENINSULA N
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE ALONG 27N81W TO 26N85W. FROM THIS POINT IT
TRANSITIONS TO A WEAK WARM FRONT ANALYZED ALONG 27N88W TO
25N91W. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. AS THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST...IT IS EXPECTED TO OVERCOME THE WARM
AND STATIONARY FRONTS OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HRS. IN THE MEAN
TIME...EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE N CENTRAL
AND N EASTERN BASIN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SITS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING...PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
BASIN. AT SURFACE...TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH THE BASIN AND
BEGIN TO TURN CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THIS FLOW
CONTINUES TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC
INTO THE BASIN...PROVIDING WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN BASIN E OF 70W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS HAPPENING OVER THE N
CENTRAL BASIN N OF 16N BETWEEN 72W AND JAMAICA. AS THE FLOW
TURNS CYCLONICALLY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS FROM THE
COAST OF PANAMA TO 20N BETWEEN 78W-84W SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THIS REGION. AS THE UPPER DRY AIRMASS LINGER OVER THE
AREA...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTING A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM
32N72W TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W. DOPPLER
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS N OF 28N W OF
77W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS A GREAT
PART OF THE ATLC AND SUPPORTS A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR
29N49W...PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS E OF 70W. HOWEVER...A
NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EAST ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR DISCUSSION AREA ALONG
32N27W TO 28N33W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES E OF THIS
SYSTEM ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 32N12W. LOOK FOR MORE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST ATLC...AS SHORT RANGE
COMPUTER MODELS GET IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO...MOVING OFF THE
EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD IN THE NEXT 12 HRS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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