[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 05N07W 01N14W 01N26W 02N37W TO THE
NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 49W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ SOUTH OF 03N ALONG 26W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 23W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GULF THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A DEEP
998 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED INLAND OVER ARKANSAS WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING S-SW FROM THE LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA AND THE
WESTERN GULF ALONG 30N92W 25N93W 22N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 27N WITH
THIS ACTIVITY STRETCHING N-NE OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND MUCH
OF ALABAMA. STRONG N-NW WINDS OF GALE FORCE FOLLOW IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NW GULF WATERS. EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT...STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE IMPACTING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLIDING EASTWARD AS
WELL PROVIDING THE GULF WITH STRONG N-NE WINDS THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY WHILE A STRONG ARCTIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND THE MUCH OF THE GULF
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN
WITH VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS EVENING. WHILE OVERALL CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAIN
STABLE...AT THE SURFACE...EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
STRENGTHENS. OTHERWISE...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AREAS OF
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF
14N BETWEEN 63W-69W...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
12N W OF 81W...INCLUDING COSTA RICA AND FAR SOUTHERN NICARAGUA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AN AXIS
ALONG 80W THAT STRETCHES NORTHWARD TO THE MID-ATLC STATES. THIS
IS SUPPORTIVE OF A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN SW OF CUBA. TWO WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING...ONE ANALYZED FROM 26N64W TO
24N66W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 62W-67W...AND
THE OTHER ANALYZED FROM 29N56W TO 25N58W. THIS SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG 58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS COVER A LARGE AREA FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 48W-58W.
FARTHER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE AZORES
NEAR 39N19W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE STRONG NE WINDS FROM 16N TO 31N
E OF 35W DUE TO A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER WESTERN AFRICA. THIS AREA OF
STRONG NE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THOUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS
THE HIGH RETAINS STRENGTH AND SHIFTS EASTWARD NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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