[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE N COAST OF LIBERIA AT 7N11W
TO 5N18W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO N BRAZIL ALONG 5N18W 4N30W
2N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN 10W-14W...AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 20W-25W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 26W-35W...AND FROM
3N-5N BETWEEN 38W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AT 30N84W TO THE GULF OF CAMPECHE ALONG 27N85W 20N93W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE NW GULF. A PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS ARE
NOTED OFF THE COAST OF SW FLORIDA FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 82W-84W.
15-20 KT NW SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE 15-20 KT S
WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY OVER N FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE LOWER YET OVER FLORIDA IN 48
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
70W-80W WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN
CONTRAST 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH
LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN MOVING W WITH THE
TRADEWINDS ESPECIALLY OVER TRINIDAD...AND E HISPANIOLA. SIMILAR
SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING ALL DEEP CONVECTION.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
YUCATAN CHANNEL. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PREFRONTAL LOW CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE
COAST OF N FLORIDA N OF COCOA BEACH MOVING E. A 1025 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N69W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N51W TO 25N60W 25N70W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 29N W
OF FRONT TO 60W AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FOR THE NEXT 18
HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICS FROM 18N48W TO
13N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
20N30W PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS NEAR THE LOW CENTER
AND FURTHER E DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR...A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N72W TO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC  FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N41W TO 20N50W WITH RAIN AND
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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