[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT DEC 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ BEGINS INLAND OVER WRN AFRICA REACHING THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W CONTINUING ALONG 5N17W 3N26W 4N36W 4N41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N
BETWEEN 19W-23W...AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 32W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE NE
PORTION REMAINING COLD FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST N OF TAMPA NEAR
28N83W TO 28N85W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 26N90W TO A
WEAK 1020 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 26N96W CONTINUING SWD TO
20N96W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS E OF THE FRONT IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 24N94W TO 19N94W...AS OF 1500 UTC. MOSTLY DRY AIR
ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS
IS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND
NEAR THE LOW CENTER. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS NEAR THE SE TEXAS COAST AND INLAND OVER MUCH OF TEXAS.
OVERCAST SKIES ARE ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH NE-E
WINDS OF 20-25 KTS. WINDS IN THE SW GULF ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY 0600 UTC TOMORROW. THE REMAINDER OF
THE SE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE NE PORTION OF THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD WHILE SEPARATING FROM
THE STATIONARY PART WHICH WILL SLOWLY RETREAT BACK TO THE NW AND
STALL BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LITTLE HAS CHANGED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG NE-E
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS PERSISTING ACROSS THE BASIN REACHING
30 KTS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW WITH
SOME STRONGER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN HONDURAS AND THE COASTAL
WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF PANAMA LIKELY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH TO THE S AND WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COASTLINE.
ALOFT...MOSTLY DRY AIR COVERS THE BASIN IN SELY FLOW AROUND THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC ALONG 32N75W TO THE COAST
OF FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL AT 29N81W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING THE FRONT...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE S CENTERED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W
SUPPORTS A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 30N62W WHICH IS PROVIDING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE E NEAR 23N44W SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
31N41W TO 20N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 35W-43W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 17N-27N BETWEEN 42W-47W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
INFLUENCED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1040 MB HIGH NEAR 44N13W
PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ERN ATLC. ALOFT...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR E ATLC SUPPORTING THE SURFACE
RIDGE. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ALSO HELPING
SUPPORT SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS N OF THE ITCZ REGION FROM
11N-24N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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