[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231121
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI DEC 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 7N12W TO 5N23W TO 6N40W TO 3N50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN
8W-14W...FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 15W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO ALONG 31N85W 24N93W
19N95W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 24N.
10-15 KT N WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE E OF THE FRONT WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE FRONT HAS LOST
UPPER AIR SUPPORT AGAIN AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
PRESENTLY COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH
THE FRONT POSITION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE FRONT
TO BE BECOME MOSTLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION... WHILE AN UNRELATED
AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A
GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN
73W-78W. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA
RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE NW COAST OF
PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N NICARAGUA AND
E HONDURAS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 82W-87W. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-22N
BETWEEN 86W-89W. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS TO ADVECT TO THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. ALSO EXPECT THE GALE TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 18
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N58W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N38W TO
21N41W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-28N
BETWEEN 36W-43W. A 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF SPAIN AT
37N19W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE HIGH TO 25N20W. EXPECT
THE TROUGH TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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