[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200519
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 20 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND OVER W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W CONTINUING SW TO 7N16W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 7N16W TO 4N30W TO 3N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 22W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
31N75W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH TO THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 30N94W. 15-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE GULF
WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS HOWEVER
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 29N-31N
BETWEEN 87W-88W. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER E TEXAS. SCATTERED
RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N BETWEEN 93W-97W.
THERE IS AN IMMEDIATE 20 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FRONT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO EXTEND FROM SW
LOUISIANA TO S OF MATAMOROS MEXICO WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS AND
PLENTY COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT N HISPANIOLA AT 20N70W TO CENTRAL
CUBA AT 22N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.
15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WIND ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA MOSTLY
DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FURTHER N OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL
SALVADOR...AND BELIZE. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER W CUBA. MORE
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF N
VENEZUELA S OF 13N E OF 68W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT E TO PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO ADVECT
FROM THE ATLANTIC TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND N VENEZUELA.
LASTLY EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO
THE MONSOON TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1027 MB HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 31N75W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 30N49W TO N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 21N60W
20N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N45W TO
24N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF THE TROUGH.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 14N53W
TO 9N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. A
1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 39N24W. A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE HIGH TO 24N37W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
MOVE E TO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 30N40W
WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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