[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER SOUTHERN WEST AFRICA TO
THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES TO 7N17W OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 4N30W 4N40W 3N51W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 17W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N77W. A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 29N94W. 10-15 KT EASTERLY RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
S TEXAS NEAR BROWNSVILLE. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO BE JUST INLAND OVER SE TEXAS IN 24 HOURS
WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WIND ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA MOSTLY
DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FURTHER N OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND
GUATEMALA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER E CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THERE TO BE
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT
IN 24 HOURS FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLAND. ALSO EXPECT A SHEAR LINE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN SHORE OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N59W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS ALONG 24N65W 23N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
30N50W TO 24N50W TO 18N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM 16N49W TO 7N53W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE TROUGH. A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR
38N26W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE HIGH TO 20N40W. EXPECT
THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS TO 30N48W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT A 1026 MB HIGH
TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N72W IN 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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