[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N11W TO
08N18W TO 06N30W TO 07N37W TO 06N45W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE ENTIRE GULF
BASIN THIS EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MOSTLY
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN CONUS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W TO THE SW GULF NEAR 20N96W. EAST
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE NOTED ON
RECENT SHIP...BUOY...AND OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS...AS WELL AS AN
ASCAT PASS AROUND 14/0218 UTC. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD.
EJECTED PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTRODUCE A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NW GULF LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 06N63W
NORTHWESTWARD TO OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W. ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE W OF 70W...SOUTHERLY DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE ENHANCEMENT TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS S OF 14N BETWEEN 77W-86W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. MOST OF THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ALONG 09N TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
OTHERWISE...NE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONGEST OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THURSDAY AND SPREAD EASTWARD AS
STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC WATERS FRIDAY REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
ALONG 32N63W TO 24N72W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N60W TO 26N65W TO 24N73W. WHILE THE FRONT
LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY...A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N59W TO 20N63W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 54W-60W...
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FARTHER SOUTH FROM 12N-20N
BETWEEN 43W-58W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY STABLE CONDITIONS NW
OF THE COLD FRONT. MOSTLY BRISK N-NE WINDS ARE NOTED ON A RECENT
ASCAT PASS AND FAST MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ELSEWHERE EAST OF 50W...A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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