[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO
10N17W AND 6N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N19W 3N30W 3N40W AND
2N48W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS CUTTING
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA DURING PARTS OF THE LAST 24 HOURS
OR SO HAS LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. SURFACE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...REMAINING ALONG
THE MEXICO COAST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...ENDING EVENTUALLY IN
HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...THAT IS IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 15N70W BEYOND
13N60W...ULTIMATELY IS MOVING TOWARD THE LARGER AREA OF FLOW
THAT IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE 22N57W CYCLONIC CENTER. SEPARATE
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS AWAY FROM THE 15N70W 13N60W NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW AREA...TO THE WEST OF 70W. MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
ALSO COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W.
A SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 16N59W 16N69W. THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/1200 UTC
WAS 0.63 INCHES. REMNANT DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 15N
TO 19N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 12N74W
IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...TO 10N80W...BEYOND
9N84W IN COSTA RICA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS WERE IN THE WATERS THAT
ARE TO THE NORTH OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN
76W AND 80W ABOUT SIX HOURS AGO. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN
THIS AREA HAVE BEEN WARMING WITH TIME...AND THE PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN WEAKENING. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N
TO THE WEST OF 76W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...IN THE AREA OF A SHEAR AXIS
FROM 24 HOURS AGO...TO THE WEST OF 83W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 29N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 29N75W TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W.
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS SUPPORTING THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A.
IN A NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION. THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ROUGHLY BETWEEN 20W AND 70W IS BLOCKING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
WITH TIME...MOST PROBABLY LEAVING A RESIDUAL CLOUD BOUNDARY THAT
MAY END UP BEING ASSOCIATED WITH RAINSHOWERS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N57W. CYCLONIC
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 31N BETWEEN 48W AND 64W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N62W 23N60W 20N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 17N TO 28N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 25N18W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N30W AND
20N35W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND
20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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