[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 10N17W
AND 5N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N19W 3N30W 3N34W AND 4N48W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO
THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS
MEXICO 24 HOURS AGO HAS REACHED THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 25N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
BEYOND 25N97W IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS
FLORIDA FROM 28N80W OFF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST TO 25N81W
AT THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA. PLEASE CONSULT LOCAL NWS OFFICE
BULLETINS AND STATEMENTS REGARDING RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING IN THE COMMUNITIES THAT ARE ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST. THE RAINFALL REPORT FOR JENSEN BEACH FLORIDA
FROM 10/0500 UTC TO 10/1500 UTC WAS 7.67 INCHES. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 31N80W TO OCALA
FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
FROM MEXICO NEAR 24N TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND EVENTUALLY
30N96W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE WEST OF 95W FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA TO 29N ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 33N71W TO 30N74W TO CAT ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN
75W AND 78W IN AREAS OF LINES OF CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N53W. CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N TO 32N
BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N
TO 25N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW...THAT IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF THE LINE 19N77W 16N70W BEYOND 13N60W...ULTIMATELY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE LARGER AREA OF FLOW THAT IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE
23N53W CYCLONIC CENTER. SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS AWAY FROM THE
19N77W 13N60W NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AREA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N50W 20N49W CURVING TO 16N52W AND
17N58W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 17N58W TO 17N62W IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...AND 17N67W. THE 24 HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 10/1200 UTC FOR
PUERTO RICO WAS 1.83 INCHES. RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 60W
AND 68W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W
AND 60W. A SEPARATE SHEAR AXIS IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 20N82W 18N85W 16N86W IN THE HONDURAS
COASTAL PLAINS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM THE HONDURAS COAST TO 19N BETWEEN 84W
AND THE COASTS OF MEXICO/BELIZE/THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 12N73W IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS OF COLOMBIA...TO 10N80W...BEYOND 9N84W IN COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
A 90 NM RADIUS OF 11N79W AND FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 82W AND
83W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 72W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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