[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 9N13W AT THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN GUINEA TO 9N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N15W
TO 5N25W 6N37W 5N45W. NO SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...BETWEEN THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GUATEMALA...BEYOND SOUTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PUSHING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...AND BEYOND
TEXAS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

FROM THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO
26N63W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 16N72W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W. A STATIONARY
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 31N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 31N58W TO 26N60W AND 20N62W...IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W TO 12N64W NEAR THE ISLA BLANQUILLA AND
LAS ISLAS LOS HERMANOS OF VENEZUELA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN
90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO
24N59W TO 20N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 20N63W 14N70W 12N74W IN THE
COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA. SURFACE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW
SPANS THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR
18N70W TO 14N76W TO COASTAL PANAMA ALONG 10N. THE MONSOON TROUGH
IS ALONG 9N73W ALONG THE VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA BORDER BEYOND 8N78W
ALONG THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS EITHER TO THE EAST OR TO
THE WEST OF THE 32N63W 11N73W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
SURFACE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
WEST OF THE TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N40W...TO THE EAST OF THE 32N63W
11N73W TROUGH. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N40W 20N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 31W AND 41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 12N
TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES 32N25W TO
27N26W 18N32W AND 10N32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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