[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI DEC 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ ENTERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC OFF AFRICA NEAR 9N13W
EXTENDING ALONG 5N24W 9N42W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N
BETWEEN 16W-24W AND FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 39W-44W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-11N
BETWEEN 27W-39W AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 44W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 89W WITH ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. DRY
STABLE AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF
THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS TO JUST INLAND OVER CUBA BETWEEN 80W-82W.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E THROUGH SUN IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF SUN EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL REACH FROM FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SHEAR LINE REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE OVER E JAMAICA TO 10N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE SHEAR LINE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 67W WITH A NARROW UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W TO BONAIRE IN THE
ABC ISLANDS. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT E OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
E OF LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 20N58W BETWEEN BARBADOS AND
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THE NW TRINIDAD GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. SHEAR LINE
WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES WILL SLOWLY MOVE W ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE E CONUS TO OVER THE FAR W
ATLC AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W
ATLC N OF 22N W OF 65W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED ALONG
27N68W TO 23N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N70W TO BEYOND
32N68W. A COLD FRONT REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ENTERING THE REGION
NEAR 32N57W TO 24N58W. DRY STABLE AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 58W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF N OF 27N
BETWEEN 64W-72W. A NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING AN AXIS FROM 20N51W TO BEYOND 32N53W
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM THE
TROPICS NEAR 10N60W ALONG 22N55W TO BEYOND 32N54W. AN UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 40W WITH AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 31N30W AND SUPPORTING A 1018 MB LOW NEAR 32N28W WITH
WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING N AND A STATIONARY FRONT
ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N24W ALONG 29N24W TO 25N30W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NW OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO 32N AND 30W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL/E
ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-55W IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH NW OF THE AZORES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD E ACROSS THE W ATLC THROUGH SUN THEN WEAKENS
MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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