[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301134
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM KATIA IS CENTERED NEAR 11.8N 31.7W AS OF 30/0900
UTC...OR ABOUT 35 MI...855 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO
45 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
MOSTLY W OF THE CENTER FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 32W-39W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA AND BARELY ENTERS
THE E TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH THE COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W
TO 18N20W. THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL
STORM KATIA HAS DISRUPTED THE OCEANIC MONSOON TROUGH...ONLY
ALLOWING A SMALL PORTION OF ITCZ TO REDEVELOPED FROM 11N46W TO
10N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST
AFRICA FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 12W-20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
48W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS
VOID OF PRECIPITATION IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 31N84W TO 28N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 22N91W 16N92W. PATCHES OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 90W-96W. ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 27N. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE E OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N AND W OF
88W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE  TO DRIFT W TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A GOOD AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA...W OF
70W. THE E CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. 15-25 TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N72W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE LOW IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TROPICAL STORM KATIA IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE TWO PROMINENT SURFACE
TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ONE EXTENDS FROM
24N41W TO 16N46W AND IS THE REMNANTS OF T.D.10. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 22N-24N
BETWEEN 37W-39W. A SECOND TROUGH IS FROM 33N43W TO 27N47W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1026 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N51W. ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N29W. THE TRADEWINDS ARE QUITE
WEAK ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE TWO SURFACE HIGHS ARE RELATIVELY
WEAK.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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