[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291056
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

T.S. JOSE IS CENTERED NEAR 37.2N 64.7W AS OF 29/0900 UTC ...OR
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM N OF BERMUDA...OR ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM S
OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MOVING N AT 20 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35
KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND
THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT1/
WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CURRENTLY A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 37N-39N BETWEEN
64W-67W. JOSE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS...BE UNDER
STRONG SHEAR...INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND DISSIPATE...
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

T.D. TWELVE IS CENTERED NEAR 9.4N 26.3W AS OF 29/0900 UTC ...OR
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MOVING W AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE CENTER FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN 25W-33W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W COAST OF AFRICA AT 19N16W
TO 12N20W. THE ITCZ HAS REDEVELOPED FROM 11N47W TO VENEZUELA AT
11N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF
WEST AFRICA FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 12W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT VOID OF CONVECTION IS OVER THE N GULF OF
MEXICO FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE NE GULF TO S LOUISIANA
ALONG 30N83W 27N87W 30N93W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 21N88W 15N91W. PATCHES OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND W OF 88W. ELSEWHERE...RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...S
FLORIDA...AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 27N E OF 84W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
THE BASE E OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER CUBA...THE S GULF...AND S MEXICO...S OF 24N.
EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E OVER N FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO DRIFT W TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A GOOD AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA...W OF
70W. THE E CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SWLY SURFACE FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 58W-70W. FARTHER
E... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SKIRTS THE NRN EXTENT OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 31N38W 28N45W 29N51W. IT IS SUPPORTED BY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN A BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
COVERING THE ERN ATLC. A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A
1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 19N38W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
THROUGH THE CENTER FROM 25N37W TO 16N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 22N-25N
BETWEEN 33W-36W. T.D.TWELVE S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
COVERS THE FAR WRN ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SE OF
JOSE NEAR 35N67W PRODUCING A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE
STORM.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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