[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 290841
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112011
500 AM AST MON AUG 29 2011

JOSE WAS DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR ABOUT SIX HOURS
OVERNIGHT BUT HAS RECENTLY REGAINED SOME DEEP CONVECTION...ALBEIT
NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED...NEAR THE CENTER.  AN ASCAT PASS AROUND
0100 UTC STILL SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF WINDS AROUND 35 KT...AND THAT
WILL REMAIN THE INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE VERY COMPACT
TROPICAL STORM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF
STREAM...BUT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER A SHARP SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TODAY AND MOVE OVER WATERS NEAR 25C THIS
AFTERNOON.  THESE COOL WATERS...VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR...AND THE
EXPECTED INTERACTION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF JOSE
SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING WITHIN 24
HOURS.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 20 KT.
STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IRENE AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL STEER JOSE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 37.2N  64.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 40.1N  63.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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