[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE IRENE MADE LANDFALL ABOUT 28/0935 UTC ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY COAST NEAR LITTLE EGG INLET. HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED
NEAR 40.3N 74.1W AT 28/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 35 NM SSW OF NEW YORK
CITY MOVING N-NE AT 22 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
963 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80
KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER A LARGE AREA INLAND OVER THE NE CONUS AND
WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM CHESAPEAKE BAY TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.

A 1011 MB LOW IS SSE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 10N21W.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM FROM THE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 9 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

A 1010 MB IS SSW OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N61W
27N67W TO 30N67W. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME EVEN
LESS FAVORABLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD 13-17 KT. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT BERMUDA TODAY.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W THROUGH THE 1011 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE TO 10N24W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 5N21W TO 12N26W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180
NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 5N-10N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS DIPS S OVER THE N GULF TO 27N
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 28/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM ALONG
THE COAST OF GEORGIA JUST W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA INTO THE
GULF JUST N OF CEDAR KEY ALONG 28N88W TO 29N92W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA NEAR LAKE CHARLES THEN OVER
E TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
30/45 NM OF LINE FROM JUST INLAND N OF TAMPA FLORIDA INTO THE
GULF ALONG 27N86W TO 27N90W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF 24N
IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N E OF 94W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF S OF 24N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SE THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MON NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SW GULF WED AND THU AS
THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD ALONG THE FAR N GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W ANCHORED NEAR
19N85W GENERATING SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF
21N W OF 86W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND TO INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA INCLUDING BELIZE. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
AND COMBINED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN N OF 14N BETWEEN 65W-81W TO OVER PUERTO RICO...
HAITI...E CUBA...AND JAMAICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 11N79W TO
OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W GENERATING SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N BETWEEN 69W-78W TO INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA...PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA AND INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS.
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE W ATLC MON THROUGH
WED INCREASING TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. THE
TRADES WILL THEN WEAKEN THU AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO RETREAT BACK
TO THE NE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE IRENE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
COVERS THE E CONUS EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 74W WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA ACROSS
NE FLORIDA JUST W OF JACKSONVILLE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN
UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N62W EXTENDING AN
UPPER TROUGH S INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE
SUPPORTING THE 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE E OF THE
SURFACE LOW WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 27N56W TO 31N60W.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SE OF THE 1010 MB LOW EXTENDING FROM
24N58W TO 16N55W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC FROM A 1022 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
THROUGH 32N51W TO 20N50W. A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 18N35W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 26N28W ALONG 22N34W THROUGH THE LOW TO 14N39W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 20N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 18N61W ACROSS BARBADOS TO
11N59W MOVING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE TROUGH. LINGERING LARGE SWELLS OVER THE
N/CENTRAL AND W ATLC GENERATED FROM HURRICANE IRENE WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD WESTWARD IN THE WAKE OF IRENE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN SLOWLY RETREAT AS A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NW
PORTION MON NIGHT SLOWLY SHIFTING E AND EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA
TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY THU.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW/FG




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