[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS81 KOKX 280452
HLSOKX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IRENE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1252 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...IRENE DRENCHING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH HEAVY RAINS AS IT
SKIRTS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...

.NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN...NORTHERN MIDDLESEX...
NORTHERN NEW LONDON...SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD...SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN...
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...SOUTHERN NEW LONDON...EASTERN PASSAIC...
HUDSON...WESTERN BERGEN...EASTERN BERGEN...WESTERN ESSEX...
EASTERN ESSEX...WESTERN UNION...EASTERN UNION...PUTNAM...
ROCKLAND...NORTHERN WESTCHESTER...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER...NEW YORK
(MANHATTAN)...BRONX...RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)...KINGS
(BROOKLYN)...NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK...
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK...NORTHERN QUEENS...
NORTHERN NASSAU...SOUTHERN QUEENS AND SOUTHERN NASSAU.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL OF
LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT COASTAL WATERS AND NEW YORK HARBOR.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
WESTERN PASSAIC...ORANGE.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. PLEASE LISTEN
CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR
AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW
YORK...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY TORNADO
WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 12 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 37.3N...LONGITUDE 75.4W. THIS WAS ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NEW YORK CITY NY...OR ABOUT 320 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MONTAUK POINT NY. STORM MOTION WAS NNE OR 20 DEGREES
AT 16 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 80 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
HURRICANE IRENE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL REACH JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK CITY AND LONG
ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
IN TORRENTIAL RAIN AND STRENGTHENING WINDS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS THESE BANDS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...FLOODING RAINS...AND
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING.

WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK...AS THE IMPACTS OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE
AREA DUE TO THE SIZE OF THE STORM.

DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE
HURRICANE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING DAMAGE IF THE GREATEST SURGE COINCIDES WITH THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDES ON SUNDAY. THIS SURGE WILL BE EXACERBATED BY
ACCOMPANYING LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE THREATENING WAVES.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. BASED ON RECENT HEAVY RAINS...IF THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OCCUR...MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS LIKELY.
SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE AN ISSUE. AS A RESULT A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN UPTON AROUND 7 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

CTZ005>012-NJZ004-006-103>108-NYZ068>075-078>081-176>179-290500-
/O.CON.KOKX.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-
WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-
WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
1252 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO
19 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME IS 83 TO 93 PERCENT.

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY. HOMES MAY HAVE DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...
SIDING...GUTTERS AND WINDOWS...ESPECIALLY IF THESE ITEMS ARE NOT
PROPERLY SECURED. LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL BECOME AIRBORNE...
CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. POWER LINES WILL
BE KNOCKED DOWN BY FALLING TREES...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD POWER
OUTAGES. MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF TREES WILL BE SNAPPED...AND A
NUMEROUS TREES WILL BE UPROOTED.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SPEED
OF THE STORM AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE POSE A SERIOUS THREAT WITH SEVERAL
FEET OF WATER INUNDATION POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS.

BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE IRENE...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR 4 TO 8 FEET OF SURGE ACROSS WESTERN LONG ISLAND
SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR...WITH 3 TO 5 FT OF SURGE ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW YORK CITY...PECONIC AND
GARDINERS BAYS...AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE TIDAL CONDITIONS WILL BE
AGGRAVATED BY ACCOMPANYING LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE
THREATENING WAVES ON TOP OF THE STORM SURGE.

HIGH TIDE ACROSS NEW YORK HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE OF WESTERN
LONG ISLAND IS AROUND 8 AM SUNDAY. IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO...
WATER LEVELS OF 8 TO 10 FT ABOVE MSL ARE POSSIBLE.

HIGH TIDE ACROSS WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND IS AROUND 11 AM
SUNDAY. IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO...WATER LEVELS OF 10 TO 11 FT
ABOVE MSL ARE POSSIBLE.

HIGH TIDE ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND IS AROUND 9 AM SUNDAY.
IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO...WATER LEVELS OF 7 TO 8 FT ABOVE MSL
ARE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE OF THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. SEE
THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THE MOST UPDATED INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT
IF FLOODING RAINS OCCUR.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS LONG ISLAND...COASTAL
CONNECTICUT...AND THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA AS INTENSE RAIN
BANDS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT.

...COASTAL HAZARDS...
INCREASINGLY LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE IRENE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMMEL THE SHORE WITH HIGH SURF. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND
WASHOVERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC FACING COASTLINE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE COASTLINE OF
LONG ISLAND SOUND AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS DUE TO THE SURGE
AND BATTERING SURF.

$$

NJZ002-NYZ067-290500-
/O.CON.KOKX.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-
1252 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 86 PERCENT.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. SEE
LATEST FORECAST FOR LATEST INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT IF FLOODING
RAINS OCCUR.

...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 40 TO 55 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY. HOMES MAY HAVE DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...
SIDING...GUTTERS AND WINDOWS...ESPECIALLY IF THESE ITEMS ARE NOT
PROPERLY SECURED. LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL BECOME AIRBORNE...
CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. SOME POWER LINES
WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN BY FALLING TREES...RESULTING IN SCATTERED
POWER OUTAGES. MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF TREES WILL BE SNAPPED...AND
A FEW TREES WILL BE UPROOTED.

...TORNADOES...
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SEE LATEST
FORECAST FOR LATEST INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO
WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF A
TORNADO APPROACHES.

$$

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-290500-
/O.CON.KOKX.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
1252 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO
23 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME IS UP TO 94 PERCENT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE UNDERWAY...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS GUSTS LIKELY BY
SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 55 TO 70
KNOTS RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 80 KNOTS.

...TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS...
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SEE LATEST
FORECAST FOR LATEST INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO
WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF A
TORNADO APPROACHES.

$$






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