[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS81 KPHI 280115
HLSPHI

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IRENE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
915 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...HURRICANE IRENE WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY...

.NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF PHILADELPHIA QUAD STATE
REGION...NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...NEW
CASTLE...KENT...INLAND SUSSEX...DELAWARE BEACHES...TALBOT...
CAROLINE...MIDDLESEX...WESTERN MONMOUTH...EASTERN MONMOUTH...
SALEM...GLOUCESTER...CAMDEN...NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...OCEAN...
CUMBERLAND...ATLANTIC...CAPE MAY...ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY...
COASTAL ATLANTIC...COASTAL OCEAN...SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON...
DELAWARE AND PHILADELPHIA.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL OF
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
CECIL...KENT MD...QUEEN ANNES...SUSSEX...WARREN...MORRIS...
HUNTERDON...SOMERSET...MERCER...CARBON...MONROE...BERKS...
LEHIGH...NORTHAMPTON...CHESTER...MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PHILADELPHIA QUAD STATE
REGION. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT
BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT SOUTHERN DELAWARE...EASTERN NEW
JERSEY AND THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE
BAY. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY TORNADO WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE
IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 9 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 36.9N...LONGITUDE 75.6W. THIS WAS ABOUT 185 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ...OR ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTH OF DOVER
DE. STORM MOTION WAS NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH. STORM INTENSITY
WAS 80 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
HURRICANE IRENE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD PARALLEL TO THE
EAST COAST...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING VERY CLOSE
TO THE COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE STORM WILL BRING DAMAGING WINDS...TORRENTIAL
RAIN WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING...AND COASTAL FLOODING.

OVERALL...A TOTAL 6 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 14 INCHES. HEAVY AND POSSIBLY RECORD
SETTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
MAJOR FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY...EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS ARE HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. THE RARITAN
AND SCHUYLKILL RIVERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACT RATHER QUICKLY
AND ARE HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. THE DELAWARE...SUSQUEHANNA
AND PASSAIC RIVERS REACT MORE SLOWLY. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO ARE
HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING FROM THIS RAINFALL EVENT.

FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY LOCATIONS ON AREA
RIVERS... WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE
TO MAJOR FLOODING FROM THE EXPECTED RAINFALL.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OR
HURRICANE IRENE THROUGH TONIGHT.

WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK
OF THE HURRICANE...AS IRENE IS A LARGE STORM. THIS IS A DANGEROUS
SITUATION. EVERYONE IS URGED TO COMPLETE THEIR STORM PREPARATIONS.

MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR CAPE MAY COUNTY...NEW
JERSEY.

MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC
COUNTY...NEW JERSEY.

MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR LONG BEACH ISLAND IN OCEAN
COUNTY...NEW JERSEY.

VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR BERKELEY TOWNSHIP IN
OCEAN COUNTY...NEW JERSEY.

SOME MAJOR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS IN NEW JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA
HAVE...OR WILL SUSPEND OPERATIONS. AT LEAST ONE BRIDGE WILL BE
CLOSED BEGINNING AT 600 PM TODAY. PLEASE MONITOR MEDIA BROADCASTS
REGARDING THE STATUS OF EVACUATIONS...TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND
SHELTERS.

IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT RESIDENTS AND VISITORS FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF
LOCAL OFFICIALS WHEN EVACUATIONS ARE ORDERED.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EVACUATE IF DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS OR IF YOUR HOME
IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING. PREPARE FOR POWER OUTAGES
THAT COULD LAST FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. MAKE SURE THAT YOUR
VEHICLE HAS A FULL TANK OF GAS.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS, DOCKS AND MARINAS, URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT, MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION, PLEASE
REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS
FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY AROUND 1100 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

MDZ008-012-015-NJZ001-007>010-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-
290115-
/O.CON.KPHI.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-
BUCKS-
915 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATES STORM INFORMATION.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 86 PERCENT.

...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO
70 MPH.

MINOR TO MODERATE DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MANY MOBILE HOMES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT HAVE CANOPIES...AWNINGS OR CARPORTS. POORLY
CONSTRUCTED HOMES MAY SUSTAIN MINOR WALL DAMAGE AND PARTIAL ROOF
REMOVAL. OTHER HOMES MAY HAVE MINOR ROOF AND SIDING DAMAGE. SOME
LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL BE TOSSED AROUND AND MAY CAUSE
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE. POWER LINES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN RESULTING IN
POWER OUTAGES. SOME LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL BE
SNAPPED. MOST NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND SHRUBS WILL BE DAMAGED OR
UPROOTED.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
FOR THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS
POSSIBLE.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION AND BE READY TO ACT IF
FLOODING RAINS OCCUR.

$$

DEZ001>004-MDZ019-020-NJZ012>014-016>027-PAZ070-071-290115-
/O.CON.KPHI.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
915 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION


...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN OR
EQUAL TO 9 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 94 PERCENT.

...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 45 TO 65 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO
80 MPH.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. POORLY ANCHORED MOBILE HOMES MAY BE
DESTROYED...ALONG WITH THOSE OF OLD OR POOR CONSTRUCTION. SOME
WELL ANCHORED MOBILE HOMES WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...WALLS AND WINDOWS...AND COULD BECOME UNINHABITABLE. SOME
HOMES OF FRAME CONSTRUCTION WILL SUSTAIN PARTIAL WALL AND ROOF
FAILURE...AND POSSIBLY BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS
WILL BE BLOWN ABOUT...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE
INJURY. MANY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE POWER OUTAGES WITH SOME DOWNED
POWER POLES. NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL SNAP.
SOME TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE GROUND IS
SATURATED.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
MUCH DEPENDS ON THE SIZE...INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT APPROACHES DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO
6 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTED TIDES IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND THE DELAWARE BAY SHORE. LOCATIONS ON THE
TIDAL PORTION OF THE RARITAN RIVER AND RARITAN BAY MAY SEE SURGES
AS HIGH AS 8 FEET IN MIDDLESEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY.

FOR ATLANTIC COUNTY NEW JERSEY...AT 7.5 FEET MLLW...OR 5.5 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...FLOODING OCCURS ON THE MARGATE BRIDGE
CAUSEWAY. FOR REFERENCE...SHOULD THE WATER LEVEL REACH 9.4 FEET
MLLW...OR 7.4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...THIS IS COMPARABLE TO THE
FLOODING THAT OCCURRED WITH THE 1944 HURRICANE.

IN MIDDLESEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY ALONG THE RARITAN BAY AND RARITAN
RIVER...AT 7.7 FEET MLLW...OR 5.1 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...
FLOODING OCCURS ALONG NEW JERSEY ROUTE 35 AND 36 IN KEYPORT AND
HAZLET. SHOULD THE WATER LEVEL REACH 9.4 FEET MLLW...OR 5.8 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...THIS IS COMPARABLE TO THE FLOODING THAT
OCCURRED WITH THE 1944 HURRICANE.

IN CAPE MAY COUNTY NEW JERSEY...AT 8 FEET MLLW...OR 5.4 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...FLOODING OCCURS ALONG NEW JERSEY ROUTE 47 IN
DENNIS TOWNSHIP AND ON AVALON BOULEVARD NEAR THE GARDEN STATE
PARKWAY INTERCHANGE 13. SHOULD THE WATER LEVEL REACH 8.8 FEET
MLLW...OR 6.2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...THIS IS COMPARABLE TO THE
FLOODING THAT OCCURRED WITH THE HURRICANE GLORIA IN 1985.

IN OCEAN COUNTY NEW JERSEY...AT 7 FEET MLLW...OR 4.8 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL...FLOODING OCCURS ON LOCAL ROADS IN OCEAN GATE AND
IN MYSTIC ISLANDS. SHOULD THE WATER LEVEL REACH 8.6 FEET MLLW...
OR 6.4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...THIS IS COMPARABLE TO THE
FLOODING THAT OCCURRED WITH THE HURRICANE GLORIA IN 1985.

IN SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE...AT 7 FEET MLLW...OR 4.8 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL...FLOODING OCCURS IN MILFORD...REHOBOTH BEACH...AND
MILLSBORO. SHOULD THE WATER LEVEL REACH 9.2 FEET MLLW...OR 7 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...THIS IS COMPARABLE TO THE FLOODING THAT
OCCURRED WITH THE NOREASTER OF MARCH 1962.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT
IF FLOODING RAINS OCCUR.

...COASTAL HAZARDS...
SEVERE BEACH EROSION ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES...AROUND 20 FEET
HIGH...ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COASTLINE
FROM LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

...RIP CURRENTS...
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. DO
NOT ENTER THE SURF.

$$

ANZ430-431-450>455-290115-
/O.CON.KPHI.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
915 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION


...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN OR
EQUAL TO 15 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 95 PERCENT.


...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY EARLY EVENING...AND HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS LATE THIS EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO LAST FOR MANY HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE 50 TO 70 KNOTS RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS.

THE SEAS WILL BUILD QUICKLY AS THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE
ARRIVES...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS REACHING AT LEAST 20 FEET ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. WAVES SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 FEET ON DELAWARE BAY...
UP TO 15 FEET AT THE ENTRANCE TO THE BAY.

$$

ANZ470-290115-
/O.CON.KPHI.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE FROM 20 TO 40 NM-
915 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO
22 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME IS 89 TO 95 PERCENT.

AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
LATE THIS EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR
MANY HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50
TO 70 KNOTS RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS.

SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC OUTER COASTAL WATERS MAY REACH OR EXCEED
25 FEET FOR A TIME FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

$$




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