[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 33.4N 76.4W AT 27/0500 UTC OR
ABOUT 74 NM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA MOVING N-NE AT 11
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-35N
BETWEEN 74W-79W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COVER A BROAD AREA FROM 27N-38N BETWEEN
70W-82W. HEAVY RAINS COVER THE AREA FROM CHARLESTON SOUTH
CAROLINA TO VIRGINIA BEACH VIRGINIA AND OUTER RAINBANDS FROM NEW
JERSEY TO NE FLORIDA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW AT
27/0300 UTC AND IS CENTERED NEAR 16.0N 34.0W AT 27/0300 UTC
MOVING W-NW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY WRITTEN BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF
THE LOW CENTER WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 16N37W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 8N19W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN
16W-20W AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 34W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW GEORGIA ACROSS ALABAMA AND
MISSISSIPPI TO S LOUISIANA AND ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS TO NEAR
LAREDO TEXAS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT DRAPES ACROSS THE SE
CONUS AND COVERING THE N GULF WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS OVER S/CENTRAL MEXICO GIVING THE SW GULF SW FLOW ALOFT.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH A 1013 MB HIGH OVER
THE NW GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE NE FLORIDA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR CEDAR KEY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF HURRICANE IRENE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS ARE UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE N GULF LATE SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN BECOMING STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF SUN NIGHT. OTHERWISE A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NE TO E UPPER LEVEL WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WHILE N
TO NW UPPER LEVEL WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND
COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. THIS SAME FLOW IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N
BETWEEN 70W-78W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. THIS IS
LEAVING MOST OF THE NW CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N W OF 84W. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUN. A RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD JUST N OF THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE IRENE MON THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE HURRICANE IRENE
APPROACHING NORTH CAROLINA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE
UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IRENE COVERS THE W ATLC W
OF 67W. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS JUST TO THE E CENTERED NEAR
24N60W SUPPORTING A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 27N61W AND IS
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 26N63W TO 31N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 29N58W TO 25N54W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM SW OF THE TROUGH N OF 26N AND
WITHIN 120 NM NE OF THE ENTIRE TROUGH AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 50W-55W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN N OF 20N E OF 70W IS DOMINATED BY A
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1025 MB HIGHS N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED N OF THE
AREA AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SHIFT N OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE SAT. CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD IN
THE WAKE OF IRENE MON THROUGH WED.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



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