[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Fri Aug 26 13:05:23 CDT 2011


AXNT20 KNHC 261805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 31.2N 77.5W AT 26/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT 260 NM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MOVING N AT 12
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER A BROAD AREA OF
THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD W OF 70W FROM 27N-35N. HURRICANE
IRENE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OUTER RAINBANDS ARE
ALREADY REACHING THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND MOVING
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
LARGE AND DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND EXTREMELY
HEAVY RAINS ALMOST ANYWHERE FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS CENTERED NEAR 14.9N 34.2W AT 26/1500
UTC MOVING NW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADER MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW CENTER
FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 35W-40W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W TO 17N19W. THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED
NEAR THE COAST OF GUYANA...SURINAME...AND FRENCH GUIANA FROM
7N51W TO NEAR 7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU...THE
GAMBIA...AND SENEGAL. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS S OF 28N E OF 85W. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 100 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO FROM MATAMOROS TO TAMPICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
WATERS ARE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
WEAK SHOWERS DOTTING THE SEASCAPE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE FAR N GULF TOMORROW SATURDAY...THEN BECOME STATIONARY
AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WATERS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN W OF 74W...ASSOCIATED TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FIELD FROM HURRICANE IRENE. THIS FLOW IS DRAWING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LINES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA
AND CUBA WITHIN 120 NM OFFSHORE. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS MOVING
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 15N E OF 63W...GENERATED BY A
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH 200 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
10-15 KT ESE WINDS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE HURRICANE IRENE
HEADING TOWARDS THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A LARGE ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 25N58W AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 55W-60W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM 26N52W TO
22N53W GENERATING SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS WITHIN 50 NM E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC NEAR
26N24W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS FEATURE. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A
BROAD 1026 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD WESTWARD IN THE WAKE OF IRENE.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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