[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 30.0N 77.3W AT 26/1200 UTC OR
ABOUT 375 NM S-SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MOVING N AT 12
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE
FROM 33N74W TO 28N78W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER A BROAD AREA FROM 25N-34N BETWEEN 70W-80W.
HURRICANE IRENE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 80 NM FROM THE CENTER AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 250 NM. THE
OUTER RAINBANDS ARE ALREADY REACHING THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA AND MOVING ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS CENTERED NEAR 14.5N 33.7W AT 26/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 540 NM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MOVING W-NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 34W-38W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W TO 17N22W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES
FROM 9N43W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N59W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
17W-19W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 48W-54W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 7N BETWEEN
33W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E GULF CENTERED NEAR 26N85W. ALTHOUGH
MODERATELY DRY AIR DOMINATES THE E GULF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE FAR E GULF S OF 27N E OF 85W IN OUTER
BANDS OF HURRICANE IRENE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE E
HALF OF THE U.S. CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM NE TEXAS TO NEAR LAREDO TEXAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-29N W OF 92W TO INLAND OVER
TEXAS.AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER S MEXICO GIVING THE SW GULF
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DRAWING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS ARE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING. HURRICANE IRENE CONTINUES TO MOVE N AWAY FROM THE
BAHAMAS IS FORECAST BE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATER TODAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR N GULF SAT THEN BECOME
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH NEAR THE COAST THROUGH SUN
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IRENE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND
COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE DENSE
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
THIS SAME FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE NW CARIBBEAN UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. HURRICANE IRENE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH TODAY. CENTRAL
ATLC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOME TO THE W SUN THROUGH TUE
ALLOWING FOR TRADES TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE E CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE HURRICANE IRENE
MOVING N AWAY FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IRENE COVERS
THE W ATLC W OF 65W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS JUST TO THE E CENTERED
NEAR 24N59W AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 55W-60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM 27N49W TO 23N53W
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION E OF
THE TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 25N48W TO 22N50W AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS
OF 25N53W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN N OF 20N E OF 60W IS
DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH N
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. HURRICANE IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE N OF
AREA LATER TODAY. CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD
IN THE WAKE OF IRENE.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW/FG






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