[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 28.7N 77.3W AT 26/0600 UTC OR
ABOUT 400 NM S-SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MOVING N AT 12
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE W QUADRANT. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER A BROAD AREA FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN
71W-79W. HURRICANE IRENE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 70 NM FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO
250 NM. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SWELLS GENERATED BY
IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SE U.S. CONUS.
THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS CENTERED NEAR 14.1N 33.1W AT 26/0300
UTC OR ABOUT 510 NM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MOVING W-NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. T.D. TEN COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM ON FRI. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W
OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 34W-38W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N16W TO 18N19W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES
FROM 8N43W ALONG 9N55W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS BEING DISRUPTED BY THE PRESENCE OF T.D.
TEN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 49W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E GULF CENTERED NEAR 26N86W. ALTHOUGH
MODERATELY DRY AIR DOMINATES THE E GULF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE FAR E GULF E OF 85W IN OUTER BANDS OF
HURRICANE IRENE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE E HALF OF
THE U.S. CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE
TEXAS TO NEAR LAREDO TEXAS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS ARE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. HURRICANE IRENE CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE
BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO PASS E OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL E OF THE
GULF WATERS. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE E GULF TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRI. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE N GULF COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND
COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE DENSE
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SOME CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN
FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO CUBA DUE TO THE OUTER BANDS OF
HURRICANE IRENE. THIS IS LEAVING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HURRICANE IRENE WILL MOVE FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
BUILD SW ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN LATE SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE HURRICANE IRENE MOVING
N AWAY FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE
UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IRENE COVERS THE W ATLC W
OF 65W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS JUST TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 24N59W
AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 53W-59W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM 26N51W TO 23N50W
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION E OF
THE TROUGH FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 47W-50W AND W OF THE TROUGH
WITHIN A 75 NM RADIUS OF 24N52W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN
N OF 20N E OF 65W IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1027 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. HURRICANE IRENE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE N OF AREA FRI EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO REGION S OF IRENE SUN THROUGH TUE.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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