[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 20.7N 71.2W AT 23/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND...OR ABOUT 70 MI...
115 KM NNW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING WNW AT 10
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT MAKING IRENE
A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND
THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/
WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
PERSISTS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA FROM 20-22N BETWEEN 69W-73W. IN
ADDITION BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 64W-74W. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335
KM.

 ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS WEST AFRICA ENTERING THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W AND EXTENDS SW TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR
13N20W. AN ITCZ IS NOTED FURTHER W FROM 12N38W TO 14N54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. FURTHER N... A
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TO NE LOUISIANA.
LIGHT 5-10 KT WINDS COVERS THE GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 29N E OF 90W.
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 92W-98W DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS PRODUCING NE UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA PRODUCING LINGERING
CONVECTION FROM THE LEEWARD ISLAND TO HISPANIOLA. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 76W-83W DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE IRENE HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE AND IS FORECAST TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY. IT IS MOVING WNW AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN 24 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N34W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
SW FROM THE HIGH TO 32N60W TO 30N70W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER. AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST AND DRY AIR ARE OVER THE E
ATLANTIC FROM 20N-27N E OF 30W HAMPERING THE 1008 MB SURFACE LOW
NEAR 13N20W.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







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