[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 220854
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011
400 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2011

EARLIER OVERNIGHT...AN AUTOMATED STATION IN ALVARADO...WITHIN THE
MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ...REPORTED WINDS VEERING FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND OF
20 KT AND A GUST TO 30 KT.  BASED ON THIS OBSERVATION AND EARLIER
MICROWAVE DATA...IT APPEARS THAT HARVEY TURNED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AND MOVED INLAND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ALVARADO BETWEEN 0000 AND
0300 UTC.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 255/9...ALTHOUGH
IT COULD BE A LITTLE FASTER...AND HARVEY IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN
ON THIS HEADING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE DAY.

CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE SCATTERED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...HARVEY SHOULD WEAKEN NOW THAT IT IS OVER
LAND...AND IT COULD ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT
OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.

HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO EVEN IF THE CENTER OF HARVEY DISSIPATES LATER
TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 18.4N  96.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 18.2N  96.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net