[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 17.5N 63.7W AT 21/1800 UTC
OR ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...ESE OF ST CROIX...OR ABOUT 185
MI...300 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MOVING WNW AT 17 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADER MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY N OF THE CENTER FROM
16N-22N BETWEEN 59W-65W. SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO RADAR PRESENTLY
DEPICTS CONVECTION AND CENTER LOCATION. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM...MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA TONIGHT...AND OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY IS CENTERED INLAND ABOUT 125 MI...200
KM ESE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO AT 21/1500 UTC MOVING W AT 11 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 92W-96W. HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

DUE TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED TO T.S. IRENE IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHING AS FAR WEST
AS 45W FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA...THERE IS NO CONVERGENCE OF NE
AND SE TRADE WINDS...THUS THERE IS NO ITCZ DEPICTED ON THE 1200
UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST
OF MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W TO A BROAD ELONGATED 1008 MB LOW WEST
OF CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N28W TO 8N40W TO 8N45W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 25W-29W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 37W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG
30N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 87W-89W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE GULF FROM
21N-28N BETWEEN 83W-95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS PRODUCING NE UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER
THE GULF. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF S OF 24N DUE TO T.D. HARVEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT...ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION TO ALSO
ADVECT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND S FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY IS T.S. IRENE MOVING ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
AND WINDS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 76W-81W DUE TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 67W-70W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-22N W OF 85W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF
31N BETWEEN 75W-78W. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 36N43W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE
HIGH TO 30N70W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. AN AREA OF AFRICAN
DUST AND DRY AIR ARE OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 25N-30N E OF 35W
HAMPERING THE 1008 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 17N28W. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NW TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL NOT HAMPER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA ALONG 10W THAT WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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