[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 16.0N 60.4W AT 21/0600 UTC
OR ABOUT  75 MI...125 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE AND ABOUT ABOUT 120
MI...195 KM SE OF ANTIGUA MOVING W AT 19 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADER MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS A BROAD REGION OF THE ATLC AND EAST CARIBBEAN
BASIN FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 56W-65W. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY
LATE MONDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION...CENTERED
INLAND OVER NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA NEAR 17.5N 90.8W AT 21/0600
UTC MOVING W-NW AT 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO
40 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE HEAVY AND STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA A SOUTHERN MEXICO...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 80W TO THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN. HARVEY
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS GUATEMALA...WESTERN HONDURAS...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

DUE TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED TO T.S. IRENE IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES...THERE IS NO CONVERGENCE OF NE AND SE
TRADE WINDS...THUS THERE IS NO ITCZ DEPICTED ON THE SURFACE
ANALYSIS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W ALONG A BROAD ELONGATED 1008 MB LOW NEAR
16N27W TO 11N33W TO 8N42W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-19N E OF 30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 30W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER OMEGA RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF
THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A DRY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ALOFT ACROSS
THE NRN AND W AREAS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SE AND S CENTRAL BASIN S
OF 26N E OF 90W ASSOCIATED TO WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF 94W
ASSOCIATED TO THE OUTER CONVECTION FROM T.S. HARVEY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW
ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS DOTTING THE BASIN. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING IS T.S. IRENE APPROACHING THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND T.S. HARVEY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.
BOTH SYSTEMS ARE PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE EAST
AND WEST CARIBBEAN BASINS. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN IN THE SW BASIN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN
72W-76W ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
NICARAGUA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN
THE 5-15 KT EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. AS HARVEY CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN INLAND OVER MEXICO...T.S. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
NE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN TODAY AND MONDAY...THEN TO NEAR THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING IS T.S. IRENE APPROACHING THE
LESSER ANTILLES. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON IRENE. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE
EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N W OF 70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN
IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH
W OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N34W LEAVING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N
UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. LONG RANGE COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
...TO OVER CUBA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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