[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 210238
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011
1000 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

THE CENTER OF HARVEY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
GUATEMALA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE COVERAGE OF COLD CONVECTIVE
TOPS HAS DECREASED NEAR THE CENTER...AND ON THAT BASIS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT.  HARVEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/13.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH
OF HARVEY WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD
TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE NEW NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMPLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE SUITE.

ALTHOUGH HARVEY HAS WEAKENED...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY AND
POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND
EASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 17.4N  90.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  21/1200Z 17.7N  92.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  22/0000Z 17.9N  94.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



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