[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO TROPICAL STORM IRENE AT 20/2300 UTC. T.S. IRENE IS CENTERED
NEAR 14.9N 58.5W AT 20/2300 UTC OR ABOUT 165 NM E OF DOMINICA
AND ABOUT 190 NM ESE OF GUADELOUPE MOVING W AT 19 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADER MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 55W-59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS IN A BAND WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM
17N53W N OF THE SYSTEM NEAR 19N58W OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO
THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR ALONG 15N63W TO JUST W OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 12N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 51W-64W
INCLUDING THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. IRENE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-7 INCHES
IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY MADE LANDFALL EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
DANGRIGA TOWN BELIZE. HARVEY IS CENTERED INLAND NEAR 17.3W 89.5W
AT 21/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 35 NM NE OF TIKAL GUATEMALA AND ABOUT 70
NM W OF BELIZE CITY MOVING W-NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40
KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND
THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT3/
WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INCLUDING BELIZE
AND N GUATEMALA MOVING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 45 NM
ALONG THE COAST S OF 21N E OF CIUDAD DEL CAMPECHE. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-22N W OF 81W TO THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN.
HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3-6 INCHES ACROSS BELIZE...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 17N16W
CONTINUING NW ALONG 19N20W THEN SW THROUGH THE 1007 MB LOW IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES NEAR 16N26W THEN TO 9N41W. WITH LOW LEVEL
WINDS DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE NEWLY DEVELOPED T.S. IRENE IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES...THERE IS NO CONVERGENCE OF NE AND SE TRADE
WINDS...THUS THERE IS NO ITCZ DEPICTED ON THE SURFACE ANALYSIS.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75
NM OF 8N BETWEEN 31W-39W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 18W-21W WITH CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 7N42W TO 10N53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF N OF 24N
ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH
T.S. HARVEY EXTENDS OVER THE S GULF GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N BETWEEN BETWEEN 82W-90W
TO INLAND OVER W CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE N GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W
ATLC. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER
FLORIDA MOVING TO ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM NAPLES TO JUST
N OF CEDAR KEY. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE S GULF AS
HARVEY MOVES ACROSS GUATEMALA TONIGHT. HARVEY WILL THEN WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER MEXICO SUN AND DISSIPATE SUN
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING IS NEWLY DEVELOPED T.S. IRENE
APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND T.S. HARVEY MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE
ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. HARVEY COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. THE
DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. IRENE COVERS THE FAR
E CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 16N TO OVER HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...AND JAMAICA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR
10N76W ALONG THE N COAST OF PANAMA NEAR COLON TO OVER COSTA RICA
NEAR THE NW BORDER OF PANAMA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
COLOMBIA AND W PANAMA. HARVEY WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER MEXICO SUN AND DISSIPATE SUN NIGHT. T.S. IRENE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NE CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT AND MON THEN TO
NEAR WINDWARD PASSAGE ON TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING IS NEWLY DEVELOPED T.S. IRENE
APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES COVERING PORTIONS OF THE W
TROPICAL ATLC...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A 1007 MB LOW IS
JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CENTERED NEAR 16N26W AND HAS A
LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM 18N23W TO 11N33W. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN N OF 20N IS
DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH N
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WSW OF THE AZORES AND A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE THEN
WEAKENING ACROSS THE N GULF OF MEXICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. T.S. IRENE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE W TROPICAL ATLC THEN INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT. IRENE WILL THEN MOVE NEAR WINDWARD PASSAGE
ON TUE TO OVER CUBA WED AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON THU. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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