[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201722
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY IS CENTERED NEAR 16.8N 87.6W OR ABOUT 65
MI...100 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY...OR ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ENE OF
MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE MOVING W 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50
KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND
THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT3/
WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
86W-90W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 82W-88W. T.S. HARVEY IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES ACROSS
HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS WILL PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS HEADING TO THE LESSER ANTILLES ANALYZED
FROM 19N53W TO 14N55W TO 9N56W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A 1007 MB
LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM
13N-18N BETWEEN 53W-59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO W
OF THE LOW CENTER OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN
58W-62W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS
IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE LIKELY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND OVER PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM TODAY.

A BROAD 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM 15N-17N
BETWEEN 26W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 17W-21W. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
WNW AT ABOUT 10 KT INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR
19N16W TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW NEAR 16N25W TO 10N39W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 28W-31W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-9N BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
29N87W PRODUCING 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NE
GULF. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF
FORT MYERS FLORIDA FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 82W-84W.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E GULF E
OF 90W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE W GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF CENTERED N OF
TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W GULF
W OF 90W. EXPECT CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S
OF 23N DUE TO T.S. HARVEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY IS T.S. HARVEY IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
MOVING WEST PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND GENERATING A
BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION THAT COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE
OTHER CONCERN IS THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 69W-75W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
NW VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM
28N-32N BETWEEN 75W-80W. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 35N45W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE
HIGH TO 29N75W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. AN AREA OF AFRICAN
DUST AND DRY AIR ARE OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 20N-26N E OF 30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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