[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190609
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DEVELOPED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AT
19/0300 UTC. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT AT
19/0600 UTC IS NEAR 15.5N 82.9W...OR ABOUT 36 NM TO THE NORTHEAST
OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ALONG THE BORDERS OF EASTERN HONDURAS/
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ABOUT T.D. EIGHT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT3 FOR MORE DETAILS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 78W AND 86W ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL
COAST OF HONDURAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ORIENTED FROM
NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIGINATES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...IT
PASSES ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND IT REACHES THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
15N72W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 12N91W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N89W...JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W/19W FROM 13N TO 22N.
A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N.
SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO
16N BETWEEN 18W AND 25W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ALSO MAY BE
RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AS IT MOVES WESTWARD/
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N45W 15N43W 12N41W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TODAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE LESSER
ANTILLES ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 MPH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ANY WRITTEN INFORMATION ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVES IS LISTED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. ALL THE TROPICAL WAVES ARE SPECIAL
FEATURES AT THIS TIME.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE DEPICTION ON THE SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A SPLIT MONSOON TROUGH
ALONG 16W AS A RESULT OF A VERY ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS
ALONG 18W/19W. ONE SECTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
AFRICA. THE OTHER SECTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 18W/19W
TROPICAL WAVE TO 12N30W AND 12N44W. NO ITCZ IS GIVEN BECAUSE
OF THE DISRUPTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE LACK OF
NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW AND SOUTHEASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W...AND
FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 44W AND 49W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 24W AND 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO
THE EAST OF 85W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N89W...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NUMEROUS STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...SPILLING INTO THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN
91W AND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. THIS IS HAPPENING IN AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW AND A BROAD SURFACE TO LOW
LEVEL TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF HONDURAS. THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
15N72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE
EAST OF 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
JAMAICA ALONG 17N BETWEEN 75W AND WESTERN CUBA...CAUGHT UP IN
BETWEEN THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
TROUGH THAT REACHES THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE WATERS OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN AFTER EXITING THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE TROUGH REACHES THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W
24N74W...TO THE CUBA COAST NEAR 22N77W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 28N57W TO 24N62W...BEYOND THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
50W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N14W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 28N16W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 20W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH
TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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