[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N80W 17N80W 12N79W.
WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS NEAR 16N78W. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF
THE MIDDLE LEVEL CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO CUBA BETWEEN 75W IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND 82W. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
SURFACE BAROMETRIC PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE AREA
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
BEFORE IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ANYONE WHO LIVES ALONG
THE COASTS OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...BELIZE...AND THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS TROPICAL
WAVE. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W FROM 12N TO 19N.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 38W AND 40W. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AFTER THAT TIME. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 21N17W AT THE AFRICA
COAST...ON TOP OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 13N30W 13N37W
8N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 25W...
AND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N
TO 12N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN WATERS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF
87W...AND FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W. A 1016 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N93W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS COMPARATIVELY FLAT AND WEAK.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N80W 17N80W 12N79W. WHAT APPEARS TO
BE THE MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS NEAR 16N78W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF THE MIDDLE
LEVEL CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
12N TO CUBA BETWEEN 75W IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 82W.
PLEASE REFERENCE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS BULLETIN FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
REMNANT RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST
OF 85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N71W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE
BAHAMAS...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE SOUTHERN END OF
A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES 31N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N55W. UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF 17N BETWEEN 47W AND 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER
THE AREA FROM 19N TO 32N BETWEEN 53W AND 62W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 35N17W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
29N19W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 31N/32N
BETWEEN 17W AND 27W FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA OF THIS BULLETIN. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 20N BETWEEN 26W AND
50W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N
TO THE EAST OF 75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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