[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180622 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

CORRECTION FOR INCORRECT TRANSMISSION OF THE BULLETIN

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N80W 16N79W 13N78W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO
20N BETWEEN 76W AND 82W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. SURFACE BAROMETRIC PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL
IN THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...BEFORE IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ANYONE WHO
LIVES ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...BELIZE...AND
THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS TROPICAL WAVE. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N36W 12N37W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 38W AND 40W.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 21N17W AT THE AFRICA COAST...
TO 14N25W 14N35W 8N47W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 22W...
AND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 33W AND 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 11N
BETWEEN 25W AND 26W...AND FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 49W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN WATERS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 28N
TO THE EAST OF 87W...AND FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W.
A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N93W. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY FLAT AND WEAK.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N80W 16N79W 13N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 76W
AND 82W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. PLEASE REFERENCE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS BULLETIN FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THIS TROPICAL
WAVE. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 19N TO CUBA BETWEEN 83W AND THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N73W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W TO FLORIDA
NEAR 29N82W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF CUBA...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...
TO 32N BETWEEN 67W AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N55W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN
47W AND 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM
20N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 36N17W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 29N20W. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA OF THIS BULLETIN. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 20N BETWEEN 26W AND
50W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N
TO THE EAST OF 75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT









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