[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 30W AND
33W.

A TROPICAL WAVE COVERS THE AREA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG
70W/71W TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 14N
BETWEEN 68W AND 75W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N16W AT THE AFRICA
COAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 13N30W...
TO 10N41W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N41W TO 9N46W AND 9N51W.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N
TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N79W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W...INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N78W...INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N86W...AND THEN IT CONTINUES
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 92W. RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM CUBA NEAR 22N77W
27N70W BEYOND 32N64W. THIS AREA INCLUDES THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...TO A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N93W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND THE GUATEMALA BORDER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT GOES FROM JAMAICA TO
10N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 82W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW. THE COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IS
SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A COMPARATIVELY
SMALLER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N84W...IS
SPREADING POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N79W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W...INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N78W...INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N86W...AND THEN IT CONTINUES
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 92W. UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
15N BETWEEN 46W AND 62W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 56W AND 59W. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE
EAST OF 73W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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