[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT AT 15/1200 UTC IS NEAR 31.5N
63.3W...ABOUT 85 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. GERT IS MOVING
NORTHWARD 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 60 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GERT ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GERT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. GERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THIS TROUGH CURRENTLY IS MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A. EAST COAST
FROM FLORIDA NORTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W...TO
THE SOUTH OF GERT. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W. ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIL THE TROPICAL STORM...FROM 27N TO 28N
BETWEEN 59W AND 60W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W FROM 10N T0 17N.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO
17N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W...AND FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 58W AND
60W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MUST BE REACHING BARBADOS.
THE ISLANDS FROM SAINT VINCENT TO DOMINICA MAY BE THE NEXT ONES
FOR THE STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IF THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION PATTERN MAINTAINS ITSELF
AND CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD.

A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N93W BEYOND THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 95W AND THE MEXICO COAST. THE STRONG PRECIPITATION THAT
WAS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO
FOUR TO FIVE HOURS AGO STILL IS INTACT. IT JUST HAS MOVED A BIT
AND RE-DEVELOPED. IT IS TO THE NORTH OF 11N BETWEEN 88W AND
100W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 22N17W AT THE AFRICA COAST...
TO 15N20W 10N30W 11N37W AND 10N43W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 10N43W
10N50W...TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 8N58W. NUMEROUS STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN THE
AFRICA COAST AND 20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 10N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST.
THE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TRAILING PAST THE CAROLINAS...THROUGH NORTHERN
FLORIDA...AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW REACHES AT LEAST 27N. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 23N IN SOME CLUSTERS OF CLOUD
FORMATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 17N80W IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA...TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS ALONG 22N93W BEYOND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 95W AND THE MEXICO
COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N91W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AREA OF
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF TROPICAL STORM
GERT...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 17N81W ABOUT 190 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA...
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N68W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO
SOUTHERN HAITI. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W...AND FROM PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS BETWEEN 67W
AND 75W IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE
WEST OF 76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
COLOMBIA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 73W AND
77W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 73W AND
THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST.
THE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TRAILING PAST THE CAROLINAS...THROUGH NORTHERN
FLORIDA...AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES STILL ARE INLAND FROM THE CAROLINAS TO ALABAMA
AND MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. THE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE EAST OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. THE
1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT WAS NEAR 25N61W SIX HOURS AGO
NOW IS A SURFACE TROUGH. THE CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION OPENED
ITSELF INTO A TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS ALONG 60W/61W FROM 22N TO
27N. ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAIL TROPICAL
STORM GERT...FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 59W AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N47W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 54W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 31N31W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N34W AND 11N38W.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W...FROM 11N TO 12N
BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. THIS PRECIPITATION BECOMES ISOLATED FROM
12N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N26W TO 27N37W...
TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N49W. ANOTHER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1015 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N70W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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