[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

T.S. GERT IS CENTERED NEAR 29.5N 63.2W...OR ABOUT 187 NM SSE OF
BERMUDA AT 15/0000 UTC...MOVING NNW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY MIATCPAT1/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-31N
BETWEEN 61W-65W.

A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N60W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 70-120 NM AROUND THE CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE
ITS PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL STORM GERT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE W-NW AT 13-17 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE WEST TROPICAL ATLC ANALYZED FORM
16N50W TO 10N51W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 50W-57W.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ANALYZED FROM
22N91W TO 15N95W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 40 NM OVER THE WESTERN
COASTAL WATERS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 19N16W ALONG 13N25W TO 11N37W. THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM
7N42W ALONG 8N50W TO 10N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 80-120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF GUINEA...SIERRA
LEONE...GUINEA BISSAU...THE GAMBIA...AND SENEGAL FROM 7N-18N E
OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SE
CONUS...NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING
THE COASTAL WATERS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND
MISSISSIPPI E OF 96W WITHIN 50 NM OFFSHORE. SURFACE RIDGING WITH
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 23N...CENTERED AROUND A 1014 MB HIGH NEAR
27N92W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 40 NM OVER THE
WESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE FAR NE GULF ON MON THEN STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN BECOME CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF WED AND
THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LARGE CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 14N W OF 74W ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE N OF 18N...ASSOCIATED TO
THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE ATLC N OF HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT ADVECTING FROM THE W
TROPICAL ATLC AND SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
NW...CENTRAL...AND ERN CARIBBEAN WITH 5-15 KT ELY TRADE WINDS.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR EASTERN CUBA
AND N OF JAMAICA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF
HISPANIOLA. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WEST TROPICAL ATLC IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ON TUE NIGHT WITH
CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING IS T.S. GERT DISCUSSED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES...PRIMARILY FOR BERMUDA...SEE ABOVE. THE UPPER
TROUGH INLAND OVER THE E AND SE CONUS IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS OF FLORIDA N OF 26N WITHIN 40-90 NM OFFSHORE...INCLUDING
THE EASTERN COASTAL STATES N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. TO THE EAST
OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION...A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
AROUND 26N71W...PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BAHAMAS. HOWEVER A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED N OF HISPANIOLA FROM
19N71W TO 24N65W IS GENERATING SIMILAR CONVECTION S OF 22N
BETWEEN 69W-74W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TO THE NE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...A SPECIAL FEATURE 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N60W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 70-120 NM
AROUND THE CENTER. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC...ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N47W. LAST
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES OF THE DAY INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF
AFRICAN DUST EXTENDING E OF 50W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W ATLC WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
T.S. GERT MOVES WNW. T.S. GERT IS FORECAST TO MOVE N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA MON MORNING BEFORE LIFTING FURTHER N. THE
SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA WILL TRACK W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE BEFORE REACHING THE NW BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA
WED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW ATLC MON NIGHT AND
DISSIPATE WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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